The impact of CBN in reduction of unemployment rate in Nigeria since 2000 till date.

The economy of Nigeria is a middle income, mixed economy emerging market with well-developed financial, legal, communications, transport, and entertainment sectors. It is ranked 31st in the world in terms of GDP (PPP) as of 2009, and its emergent, though currently under performing manufacturing sector is the second-largest on the continent, producing a large proportion of goods and services for the West African region.

Previously hindered by years of mismanagement, economic reforms of the past decade have put Nigeria back on track towards achieving its full economic potential. Nigerian GDP at purchasing power parity more than doubled from $170.7 billion in 2005 to $374.3 billion in 2010, although estimates of the size of the informal sector (which is not included in official figures) put the actual numbers closer to $520 billion. Correspondingly, the GDP per capita doubled from $1200 per person in 2005 to an estimated $2,500 per person in 2009 (again, with the inclusion of the informal sector, it is estimated that GDP per capita hovers around $3,500 per person). It is the largest economy in the West Africa Region, 3rd largest economy in Africa (behind South Africa and Egypt), and on track to becoming one of the top 30 economies in the world in the early part of 2011.

Although much has been made of its status as a major exporter of oil, Nigeria produces only about 3.3% of the world's supply, and though it is ranked as 15th in production at 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd), the top 3 producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States produce 10.7mbpd (16.8%), 9.8mbpd (15.4%), and 8.5mbpd (13.4%) respectively, collectively accounting for 63.6mpd (45.4%) of the world's total production.  To put oil revenues in perspective: at an estimated export rate of 1.9mbd, with a projected sales price of $65 per barrel in 2011, Nigeria's anticipated revenue from petroleum is about $52.2 billion. This accounts for less than 14% of official GDP figures (and drops to 10% when the informal economy is included in these calculations). Therefore, though the petroleum sector is important, it remains in fact a small part of the country's overall vibrant and diversified economy.

The largely subsistence agricultural sector has not kept up with rapid population growth, and Nigeria, once a large net exporter of food, now imports some of its food products. In 2006, Nigeria successfully convinced the Paris Club to let it buy back the bulk of its debts owed to the Paris Club for a cash payment of roughly $12 billion (USD).

At present, the world economy is at a crossroad. The Nigerian economy is therefore undergoing it most severe economic crisis since the Biafra war of the sixties. Currently, she is experiencing a staggering rate of inflation (well up to the double digit) as well as experiencing a severe recession (as the unemployment rate has risen astronomically).

        Indeed, the Nigeria economy is now undergoing its most sever economic crisis since the Biafra Civil War of the sixties. In other words, as the biggest recession in seventy years Continues to undermine political support for globalization and threaten the income of more families globally, it negative implications for Nigerians economy now appears to be incontestable.   That is, if there were to be significant slowdowns in the economic activity of the United States of America, they will be buying less crude oil; and if they buy less crude oil, crude oil prices will crash and consequently, the Nigerian budget will collapse. Right now, the Country appears stuck with the various off shoots of the crisis (such as shrinking private inflows, weakening naira, nose-diving foreign reserves, reduced revenue due to plummeting oil prices, and hyperinflation). For example, a market observation revealed that a Ewedu seller who offered a smaller than usual bunch for fifty naira, linked the increase in price to appreciating dollar. Here, the puzzle is that whether the global food crisis had also forced farmers to import vegetables in dollars. Yet, the exploration is that if the dollars rises, a vegetable seller in Nigeria who must spared on inevitable daily needs (most of which are imported) incur extra expenses. Consequently, the only way to meet up with the financial implications of these added costs is to align the price of her Ewedu with global reality, even in a situation where the environment favors cheap production.

Specifically, Nigeria is currently experiencing a staggering rate of inflation, well up into the double digits.  At the same time, contrary to all economic theory, she is experiencing a severe recession, as the unemployment rate has risen above single digit and the gross national product has steadily declined which are symptoms of a recession that might well much room into a full- scale depression. Thus, this double bird of rampant inflation and recession can be professionally regarded as stagflation or slumpflation. Just as the great depression was a worldwide phenomenon, so the current rampant inflation is devastating all the major countries of the world. Therefore, economists have diagnosed the current inflationary trend as both “demand- pull” inflation in which consumer demand far exceeds the supply of 5 goods and services (that is, too much money pursuing too few goods) and as “ cost push” inflation in which rising costs of labor push prices even higher. Yet, the general consensus is that both of these forces are now at work, reinforcing each other in an ever upward spiral of prices. Underlying these inflationary pressures are decidedly new features of the word economy, such as the energy crisis and the general scarcity of essential resources. Thus, the consensus of most scholars is that the current inflation (with or without recession) is a long- range phenomenon not likely to recede in the near future. In fact, we may be on the verge of a new society (one in which inflation is endemic to our way of life); and in a variety of circles, the alarm has been raised that hyperinflation can lead to the downfall of our democratic society. 

However, Central Bank of Nigeria (2007) observed that inflationary pressure remained largely subdued in 2007 and the single digit target rate was sustained two years in a row. At six point six percents the year – on – year inflation rate was one point nine percentage point below the eight point five percent recorded in 2006.

Here, the favorable inflationary development was underpinned by relative good agricultural harvest despite the mild brought and flooding experienced in certain parts of the country; stability in the prices   and supply of petroleum products; sound macroeconomic policies (such as monetary and fiscal policies) as well as the substantial appreciation of the naira exchange rate. Similarly, the headline inflation why driven largely by the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel components of the consumer price index, which contributed about four point four percentage points to the observed inflation rate. More recently, the international labor organization (I.L.O) reported that global job losses worldwide could hit fifty –one million by the end of 2009 as a result of the economic slowdown believed to be degenerating into a global unemployment crisis. Under the present economic downturn that is currently ravaging the world, ILO reported that 2009 would finish with more unemployed peoples than at the end of 2007 during which the global unemployment rate was single digit. Unfortunately, we are now facing a global jobs crisis and progress in poverty reduction is unraveling and middle classes worldwide are weakening. Thus, the political and security implications are daunting. Here, the ILO prediction is that the crisis could also push another two hundred million workers into extreme poverty as they are faced with the grim reality of being forced out of a living in informal, underpaid and instable work situation (such as in south Asia and Africa). Beyond the fifty- one million people that will be directly affected by the global job losses, a number of people that depend on them will also be affected indirectly.  For example, an average worker has about five dependants and those in the Diasporas who normally remit money home will be equally affected. It could also lead to high crime rate and prostitution by young females. It will also increase the rate of drug trafficking as well as money laundering. Again, it would encourage discipline from children of parents that are directly affected, as standards of living will also fall as those affected can no longer pay for the things of interest. Consequently, governments have to do something urgent to ameliorate the situation, as the situation at hand is not a child’s play. And whether the above apocalyptic events will ever come to pass, it is clear that rampant inflation now joined by a dangerous recession has already had a dramatic impact on the way of life of many Nigerians.   In other words, whether the rampant inflation or widespread unemployment is the major problem at the time the proposed study is carried out remains to be seen. In either event, families in all walks of life will have been touched by these economic conditions and the pressures will be so great that their very survival will be threatened. Therefore, the basics thesis’s (thrust) of this proposal is that stagflation has caused and will continue to cause considerable hardship for many American families and poses a serious threat to the mental health of a substantial proportion of the population.

In the light of highly expansionary public sector fiscal policies in 2001, the government sought ways to head off higher inflation, leading to the implementation of stronger monetary policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and under spending of budgeted amounts. As a result of the CBN's efforts, the official exchange rate for the Naira has stabilized at about 112 Naira to the dollar. The combination of CBN's efforts to prop up the value of the Naira and excess liquidity resulting from government spending led the currency to be discounted by around 20% on the parallel (non-official) market. A key condition of the Stand-by Arrangement has been closure of the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates. The Inter Bank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) is closely tied to the official rate. Under IFEM, banks, oil companies, and the CBN can buy or sell their foreign exchange at government influenced rates. Much of the informal economy, however, can only access foreign exchange through the parallel market. Companies can hold domiciliary accounts in private banks, and account holders have unfettered use of the funds.

Nigeria’s economy is struggling to leverage the country’s vast wealth in fossil fuels in order to displace the crushing poverty that affects about 57 percent of its population. Economists refer to the coexistence of vast wealth in natural resources and extreme personal poverty in developing countries like Nigeria as the “resource curse”. Nigeria’s exports of oil and natural gas—at a time of peak prices—have enabled the country to post merchandise trade and current account surpluses in recent years. Reportedly, 80 percent of Nigeria’s energy revenues flow to the government, 16 percent cover operational costs, and the remaining 4 percent go to investors. However, the World Bank has estimated that as a result of corruption 80 percent of energy revenues benefit only 1 percent of the population. In 2005, Nigeria achieved a milestone agreement with the Paris Club of lending nations to eliminate all of its bilateral external debt. Under the agreement, the lenders will forgive most of the debt, and Nigeria will pay off the remainder with a portion of its energy revenues. Outside of the energy sector, Nigeria’s economy is highly inefficient. Moreover, human capital is underdeveloped—Nigeria ranked 151 out of 177 countries in the United Nations Development Index in 2004—and non-energy-related infrastructure is inadequate.

From 2003 to 2007, Nigeria attempted to implement an economic reform program called the National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS). The purpose of the NEEDS was to raise the country’s standard of living through a variety of reforms, including macroeconomic stability, deregulation, liberalization, privatization, transparency, and accountability. The NEEDS addressed basic deficiencies, such as the lack of freshwater for household use and irrigation, unreliable power supplies, decaying infrastructure, impediments to private enterprise, and corruption. The government hoped that the NEEDS would create 7 million new jobs, diversify the economy, boost non-energy exports, increase industrial capacity utilization, and improve agricultural productivity. A related initiative on the state level is the State Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (SEEDS).

A longer-term economic development program is the United Nations (UN)-sponsored National Millennium Goals for Nigeria. Under the program, which covers the years from 2000 to 2015, Nigeria is committed to achieve a wide range of ambitious objectives involving poverty reduction, education, gender equality, health, the environment, and international development cooperation. In an update released in 2004, the UN found that Nigeria was making progress toward achieving several goals but was falling short on others. Specifically, Nigeria had advanced efforts to provide universal primary education, protect the environment, and develop a global development partnership. However, the country lagged behind on the goals of eliminating extreme poverty and hunger, reducing child and maternal mortality, and combating diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and malaria.

Current GDP per capita of Nigeria expanded 132% in the Sixties reaching a peak growth of 283% in the Seventies. But this proved unsustainable and it consequently shrank by 66% in the Eighties. In the Nineties, diversification initiatives finally took effect and decadal growth was restored to 10%.

Due to inflation, per capita GDP today remains lower than in 1960 when Nigeria declared independence. About 57 percent of the population lives on less than US$1 per day. In 2005 the GDP was composed of the following sectors: agriculture, 26.8 percent; industry, 48.8 percent; and services, 24.4 percent.

In 2005 Nigeria’s inflation rate was an estimated 15.6 percent. Nigeria’s goal under the National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS) program is to reduce inflation to the single digits.

In 2005 Nigeria’s central government had expenditures of US$13.54 billion but revenues of only US$12.86 billion, resulting in a budget deficit of 5 percent. Nigerian tax authorities face the challenge of widespread tax evasion, which is motivated by complaints about corruption and the poor quality of services.

 

Nigeria ranks twenty-fifth worldwide and first in Africa in farm output. Agriculture has suffered from years of mismanagement, inconsistent and poorly conceived government policies, and the lack of basic infrastructure. Still, the sector accounts for over 26.8% of GDP[1] and two-thirds of employment. Nigeria is no longer a major exporter of cocoa, groundnuts (peanuts), rubber, and palm oil. Cocoa production, mostly from obsolete varieties and overage trees, is stagnant at around 180,000 tons annually; 25 years ago it was 300,000 tons. An even more dramatic decline in groundnut and palm oil production also has taken place. Once the biggest poultry producer in Africa, corporate poultry output has been slashed from 40 million birds annually to about 18 million. Import constraints limit the availability of many agricultural and food processing inputs for poultry and other sectors. Fisheries are poorly managed. Most critical for the country's future, Nigeria's land tenure system does not encourage long-term investment in technology or modern production methods and does not inspire the availability of rural credit.

Agricultural products include cassava (tapioca), corn, cocoa, millet, palm oil, peanuts, rice, rubber, sorghum, and yams. In 2003 livestock production, in order of metric tonnage, featured eggs, milk, beef and veal, poultry, and pork, respectively. In the same year, the total fishing catch was 505.8 metric tons. Round wood removals totaled slightly less than 70 million cubic meters, and sawn wood production was estimated at 2 million cubic meters. The agricultural sector suffers from extremely low productivity, reflecting reliance on antiquated methods. Although overall agricultural production rose by 28 percent during the 1990s, per capita output rose by only 8.5 percent during the same decade. Agriculture has failed to keep pace with Nigeria’s rapid population growth, so that the country, which once exported food, now relies on imports to sustain itself.

Nigeria ranks 44th worldwide and third in Africa in factory output, the oil boom of the 1970s led Nigeria to neglect its strong agricultural and light manufacturing bases in favor of an unhealthy dependence on crude oil. In 2000, oil and gas exports accounted for more than 98% of export earnings and about 83% of federal government revenue. New oil wealth, the concurrent decline of other economic sectors, and a lurch toward a statistic economic model fueled massive migration to the cities and led to increasingly widespread poverty, especially in rural areas. A collapse of basic infrastructure and social services since the early 1980s accompanied this trend. By 2000, Nigeria's per capita income had plunged to about one-quarter of its mid-1970s high, below the level at independence. Along with the endemic malaise of Nigeria's non-oil sectors, the economy continues to witness massive growth of "informal sector" economic activities, estimated by some to be as high as 75% of the total economy.

Nigeria's proven oil reserves are estimated to be 35 billion barrels; natural gas reserves are well over 100 trillion cubic feet. Nigeria is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and in mid-2001, its crude oil production was averaging around 2.2 million barrels per day. The types of crude oil exported by Nigeria are Bonny light oil, Forcados crude oil, Qua Ibo crude oil and Brass River crude oil. Poor corporate relations with indigenous communities, vandalism of oil infrastructure, severe ecological damage, and personal security problems throughout the Niger Delta oil-producing region continue to plague Nigeria's oil sector. Efforts are underway to reverse these troubles. In the absence of government programs, the major multinational oil companies have launched their own community development programs. A new entity, the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), has been created to help catalyze economic and social development in the region. Although it has yet to launch its programs, hopes are high that the NDDC can reverse the impoverishment of local communities. The U.S. remains Nigeria's largest customer for crude oil, accounting for 40% of the country's total oil exports; Nigeria provides about 10% of overall U.S. oil imports and ranks as the fifth-largest source for U.S. imported oil.

The United Kingdom is Nigeria's largest trading partner followed by the United States. Although the trade balance overwhelmingly favors Nigeria, thanks to oil exports, a large portion of U.S. exports to Nigeria is believed to enter the country outside of the Nigerian government's official statistics, due to importers seeking to avoid Nigeria's excessive tariffs. To counter smuggling and under-invoicing by importers, in May 2001, the Nigerian government instituted a full inspection program for all imports, and enforcement has been sustained. On the whole, Nigerian high tariffs and non-tariff barriers are gradually being reduced, but much progress remains to be made. The government also has been encouraging the expansion of foreign investment, although the country's investment climate remains daunting to all but the most determined. The stock of U.S. investment is nearly $7 billion, mostly in the energy sector. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are the two largest U.S. corporations in offshore oil and gas production. Significant exports of liquefied natural gas started in late 1999 and are slated to expand as Nigeria seeks to eliminate gas flaring by 2008.

Oil dependency, and the allure it generated of great wealth through government contracts, spawned other economic distortions. The country's high propensity to import means roughly 80% of government expenditures is recycled into foreign exchange. Cheap consumer imports, resulting from a chronically overvalued Naira, coupled with excessively high domestic production costs due in part to erratic electricity and fuel supply, pushed down utilization of industrial capacity to less than 30%. Many more Nigerian factories would have closed except for relatively low labor costs (10%–15%). Domestic manufacturers, especially pharmaceuticals and textiles, have lost their ability to compete in traditional regional markets. However, there are signs that some manufacturers have begun to improve competitiveness.

In April 2006, Nigeria became the first African country to fully pay off its debt owed to the Paris Club. However, this was structured as a debt write off of approximately $18 billion and a cash payment of approximately $12 billion. 

In the light of highly expansionary public sector fiscal policies in 2001, the government sought ways to head off higher inflation, leading to the implementation of stronger monetary policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and under spending of budgeted amounts. As a result of the CBN's efforts, the official exchange rate for the Naira has stabilized at about 112 Naira to the dollar. The combination of CBN's efforts to prop up the value of the Naira and excess liquidity resulting from government spending led the currency to be discounted by around 20% on the parallel (non-official) market. A key condition of the Stand-by Arrangement has been closure of the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates. The Inter Bank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) is closely tied to the official rate. Under IFEM, banks, oil companies, and the CBN can buy or sell their foreign exchange at government influenced rates. Much of the informal economy, however, can only access foreign exchange through the parallel market. Companies can hold domiciliary accounts in private banks, and account holders have unfettered use of the funds.

Expanded government spending also has led to upward pressure on consumer prices. Inflation that had almost disappeared in April 2000 reached 14.5% by the end of the year and 18.7% in August 2001. In 2000, high oil prices resulted in government revenue of over $16 billion, about double the 1999 level. State and local governments demanded access to this "windfall" revenue, creating a tug-of-war between the federal government, which sought to control spending, and state governments desiring augmented budgets, preventing the government from making provision for periods of lower oil prices.

In 2005, Nigeria had a labor force of 57.2 million. In 2003, the unemployment rate was 10.8 percent overall; urban unemployment of 12.3 percent exceeded rural unemployment of 7.4 percent. According to the latest available information from 1999, labor force employment by sector was as follows: 70 percent in agriculture, 20 percent in services, and 10 percent in industry. Labor unions, which have undergone periods of militancy and quiescence, reemerged as a force in 1998 when they regained independence from the government. Since 1999, the Nigerian Labor Congress (NLC), a union umbrella organization, has called six general strikes to protest domestic fuel price increases. However, in March 2005 the government introduced legislation ending the NLC’s monopoly over union organizing. In December 2005, the NLC was lobbying for an increase in the minimum wage for federal workers. The existing minimum wage, which was introduced six years earlier but has not been adjusted since, has been whittled away by inflation to only US$42.80 per month.

According to the International Organization for Migration, the number of immigrants residing in Nigeria has more than doubled in recent decades – from 477,135 in 1991 to 971,450 in 2005. The majority of immigrants in Nigeria (74 per cent) are from neighboring Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and that this number has increased considerably over the last decade, from 63 per cent in 2001 to 97 per cent in 2005. In spite of Nigeria's importance as a destination for migrants in the region, more people are emigrating from, than immigrating to, Nigeria with the negative net migration rate (per 1,000 people) steadily increasing in recent years, from -0.2 in 2000 to -0.3 in 2005, and this trend is expected to continue. According to recent estimates, the net migration rate could reach -0.4 in 2010.

In 2005, Nigeria imported about US$26 billion of goods. In 2004 the leading sources of imports were China (9.4 percent), the United States (8.4 percent), the United Kingdom (7.8 percent), the Netherlands (5.9 percent), France (5.4 percent), Germany (4.8 percent), and Italy (4 percent). Principal imports were manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, and food and live animals.

In 2005, Nigeria exported about US$52 billion of goods. In 2004, the leading destinations for exports were the United States (47.4 percent), Brazil (10.7 percent), and Spain (7.1 percent). In 2004 oil accounted for 95 percent of merchandise exports, and cocoa and rubber accounted for almost 60 percent of the remainder.

In 2005, Nigeria posted a US$26 billion trade surplus, corresponding to almost 20 percent of gross domestic product. In 2005, Nigeria achieved a positive current account balance of US$9.6 billion. The Nigerian currency is the naira (NGN). As of mid-June 2006, the exchange rate was about US$1=NGN128.4.

In recent years, Nigeria has expanded its trade relations with other developing countries such as India. Nigeria is the largest African crude oil supplier to India — it annually exports 400,000 oil barrels per day to India valued at US$10 billion annually. India is the second largest purchaser of Nigeria's oil which fulfills 20 to 25 percent of India's domestic oil demand. Indian oil companies are also involved in oil drilling operations in Nigeria and have plans to set up refineries there.

As of October 2005, World Bank assistance to Nigeria involved 19 active projects with a total commitment value of about US$1.87 billion. Since Nigeria joined the World Bank in 1961, the World Bank has assisted it on 120 projects. In October 2005, the International Monetary Fund approved a two-year “policy support instrument” designed to promote the growth of the non-oil sector and to reduce poverty.

The United States assisted with Nigeria's economic development from 1954 through June 1974, when concession assistance was phased out because of a substantial increase in Nigeria's per capita income resulting from rising oil revenue. By 1974, the United States had provided Nigeria with approximately $360 million in assistance, which included grants for technical assistance, development assistance, relief and rehabilitation, and food aid. Disbursements continued into the late 1970s, bringing total bilateral economic assistance to roughly $445 million.

The sharp decline in oil prices, economic mismanagement, and continued military rule characterized Nigeria in the 1980s. In 1983, USAID began providing assistance to the Nigerian Federal and State Ministries of Health to develop and implement programs in family planning and child survival. In 1992, an HIV/AIDS prevention and control program was added to existing health activities. USAID committed $135 million to bilateral assistance programs for the period of 1986 to 1996 as Nigeria undertook an initially successful Structural Adjustment Program, but later abandoned it. Plans to commit $150 million in assistance from 1993 to 2000 were interrupted by strains in U.S.-Nigerian relations over human rights abuses, the failed transition to democracy, and a lack of cooperation from the Nigerian Government on anti-narcotics trafficking issues. By the mid-1990s, these problems resulted in the curtailment of USAID activities that might benefit the military Government. Existing health programs were re-designed to focus on working through grassroots Nigerian non-governmental organizations and community groups. As a response to the Nigerian military government's plans for delayed transition to civilian rule, the Peace Corps closed its program in Nigeria in 1994.

In response to the increasingly repressive political situation, USAID established a Democracy and Governance (DG) program in 1996. This program integrates themes focusing on basic participatory democracy, human rights and civil rights, women's empowerment, accountability, and transparency with other health activities to reach Nigerians at the grassroots level in 14 of Nigeria's 36 states.

The sudden death of General Sani Abacha and the assumption of power by General Abdulsalami Abubakar in June 1998, marked a turning point in U.S.-Nigerian relations. USAID provided significant support to the electoral process by providing some $4 million in funding for international election observation, the training of Nigerian election observers and political party polling agents, as well as voter education activities. A Vital National Interest Certification was submitted to Congress in February 1999 by President Clinton to lift restrictions on U.S. Government interaction with and support to the Government of Nigeria.

Since that time, USAID has supported Nigeria to sustain democracy and to improve governance by providing training on the roles and responsibilities of elected officials in a representative democracy for newly elected officials at the federal, state, and local levels prior to their installation in May 1999 and assisting with conflict prevention and resolution in the Niger Delta, civil military relations, civil society, and political party development. In the economic area USAID supports programs in strengthening economic management and coordination, encouraging private sector development and economic reform, helping Nigeria reap the benefits of AGOA, improved agricultural technology and marketing and small-scale and micro-enterprise development. In addition, health assistance, focusing on HIV/AIDS, nutrition, and immunization, education, transportation and energy infrastructure, are priorities for bilateral assistance.

References

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nigeria

http://www.dmo.gov.ng/debtrelief/parisclubdeal.php

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14596/